Prognostic Factors for 30-day Mortality in SARS-CoV-2 Pneumonia
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Abstract
Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 has caused millions of deaths globally since its first case was reported in China. In Guatemala, few studies describe prognostic factors. Our objective was to determine the factors associated with 30-day mortality in patients with Pneumonia (Nm) due to SARS-CoV-2 and to build a predictor model.
Material and Methods: Retrospective study in 144 subjects at Roosevelt Hospital from March to December 2020 with Nm criteria for SARS-CoV-2. The medical record was reviewed, obtaining clinical and laboratory data from admission to hospital discharge or death.
Results: 105 men and 39 women with an average age of 53 years were evaluated. 47% had comorbidities, with type 2 diabetes mellitus and systemic arterial hypertension being common. The average number of days of hospitalization was 13. 92% had mild to moderate acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) was indicated for 46 patients. Overall mortality was 35%. The factors associated with 30-day mortality were age ≥50 years, the onset of symptoms ≥7 days, severe ARDS, N/L ratio >4.4, receiving IMV, alterations in LDH, and procalcitonin. Our model showed that the best predictors of mortality were altered procalcitonin (OR: 4.45), receiving IMV (OR: 112), and days of hospital stay (OR: 1.12) with precision of 91.5% and area under the curve of 94.4%.
Conclusions: The prognostic factors of mortality in Guatemalan patients with Nm due to SARS-CoV-2 are multiple and include demographic, clinical and serological features; Identifying them and having a prognostic model will help provide precision medical care.
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